The Bills entered the season as Super Bowl favorites, but that is no longer the case. The AFC-leading Chiefs (+400) overtook Buffalo (+450) this week and now have the shortest chance of winning it all.
Patrick Mahomes is also a cheaper favorite to win his second MVP at SI Sportsbook, while Josh Allen’s odds continue to dip.
A turbulent month has put a damper on the Bills’ betting future, but they are still favorites to win in New England tonight as they battle the Dolphins for the top spot in the AFC East.
In today’s Winners Club you will find:
Bills looking for third straight win over Patriots
Invoices (-3.5) against patriots
8:15 p.m. ET (First video)
The AFC East has been one of the toughest divisions in the NFL this season, and two teams are vying for position at a pivotal time to start Week 13. Buffalo, which won two in a row before Thursday, is a road favorite against New England, which is coming off a loss to Minnesota. Both teams played Thanksgiving last week, so it’s not as quick a turnaround as it would have been had they adapted on Sunday.
The Bills and Patriots both employ some of the league’s best defenses, though Buffalo backs it up on the other side of the ball with a high-scoring offense. The New England defense will struggle to contain quarterback Josh Allen, who posted a near-perfect game the last time these teams met. Meanwhile, Mac Jones is coming off his best game of the season against the Vikings, where he threw for nearly 400 yards.
Frankie Taddeo has a detailed betting overview of the BUF-NE primetime game and his pick, as well as three player props he likes in the contest. And Albert Breer, Jen Piacenti and Michael Fabiano have come together to break down the game from every angle.
Some things you need to know:
- The Bills have outscored the Patriots by a combined 42 points (80-38) in their last two meetings, including last season’s Wild Card game.
- The Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
- Buffalo opened as a 5.5-point favorite, but that line fell to just over a field goal in favor of the road team.
- The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
- New England OT Trent Brown is questionable with an illnessand receiver Jakobi Meyers is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Pick 10 games against the spread this week to enter SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10 contest for a chance to win a $10,000 prize. The full Week 13 slate betting breakdown can be found here. Lots of key divisional games are going on, but I’m watching the Chiefs-Bengals AFC Championship rematch in Cincinnati.
Get your NFL tickets for week 13 with SI Tickets
Only Cardinals and Panthers are goodbyes, so your fantasy roster shouldn’t miss much this week.
The biggest wrinkle this week is the return of Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson, who will play for the first time since January 2021. His first game after an 11-game suspension for sexual misconduct stemming from more than two dozen lawsuits, almost all of which have been settled – is against his former team, the Texans.
Craig Ellenport explained what Watson’s return means for fantasy managers in this week’s fantasy spinoff.
Beyond that, our experts have their usual recommendations, projections and more to help you define your best possible lineup for this week as the playoffs approach.
Start them, sit down
Quarters: You can count on Jimmy Garoppolo at home against the Dolphins.
Running back: Drive away from Alvin Kamara on the road to Tampa.
Wide Receivers: With Mike White under center, Garrett Wilson must be in the lineups.
Tight ends: Don’t count out Tyler Higbee this week, even against Seattle.
Kickers and defenses: The Ravens have a great game against the Broncos at home.
Quarters: Lamar Jackson is a mid-level QB1 facing the Denver defense.
Come back: Both fullbacks in the Chargers-Raiders game are high-end options.
Wide Receivers: Chris Godwin ranks a few places ahead of Mike Evans this week.
Tight ends: Even with a quarterback change, David Njoku is a reliable choice.
Flex: Rhamondre Stevenson is one of the best flex games of week 13, period.
Defenses: The Browns should be road usable against the Texans.
Kickers: The two kickers in the KC-CIN game are among the best games.
Quarters: Mike White is projected for 20+ points against the Vikings.
Running back: Rachaad White is up for one of her best releases of the year.
Wide Receivers: Amon-Ra St. Brown has the highest projection among receivers.
Tight ends: Dawson Knox is expected to beat Travis Kelce this week.
The United States will face the Netherlands in the knockout stage
On Tuesday, the United States men’s national team beat Iran, 1-0, to advance to the round of 16 against the Netherlands.
Christian Pulisic, who picked up the injury as he scored the game-clinching goal, said he was “doing everything in my power to be able to be on the pitch on Saturday”.
The Netherlands are a -110 favorite to win at the SI Sportsbook. A US win would pay out at +300 and a full time draw at +215. Jen Piacenti previewed the match, which begins Saturday at 10 a.m. ET on Fox.
The entire Cup scoreboard is available here. The group stage continues on Thursday and Friday, with a handful of places in the knockout stage still up for grabs.
Conference championship matchups to decide PSC
A lot can change depending on the results of this weekend’s conference title games.
If the favorites win, the College Football Playoff will face the top four teams heading into the week: Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC. But this is college football we’re talking about, where upsets are commonplace.
No. 5 Ohio State and No. 6 Alabama — both inactive this week — wait in the wings hoping the chaos will allow them to sneak into the top four.
Pat Forde previewed the conference championship roster and made his picks for each contest.
Friday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox): No. 11 Utah against #4 USC (-2.5)
The Utes handed the Trojans their only loss this season in October at Salt Lake City by one point. They end up at a neutral site with a playoff spot on the table for USC.
Big 12 Championship
12 p.m. ET (ABC): No. 10 Kansas State against #3 TOS (-2.5)
The Horned Frogs held off the Wildcats earlier this year, 38-28, at home. TCU came back from a 28-17 halftime deficit and blanked Kansas State in the second half.
4 p.m. ET (CBS): No. 14 USL vs. #1 Georgia (-17.5)
The Tigers and Bulldogs last met in the 2019 SEC Championship, which LSU won 37-10 en route to their national title. UGA could probably afford a loss and end up in the top four teams.
4 p.m. ET (ABC): No. 22 UCF against #18 Tulane (-4)
The Knights beat the Green Wave, 38-31, a few weeks ago in New Orleans. UCF is aiming for its third AAC crown and Tulane is aiming for its first.
Big Ten Championship
8 p.m. ET (Fox): Purdue against #2 Michigan (-17)
The Boilermakers and Wolverines haven’t met in the regular season and haven’t played each other since 2017. Michigan is chasing its second straight Big Ten title.
8 p.m. ET (ABC): No. 9 Clemson (-7.5) against No. 23 North Carolina
The Tigers and Tar Heels haven’t played in the regular season and haven’t met since 2019. Clemson’s Week 13 loss to South Carolina knocked him out of the playoffs.
College Football Playoff Odds
State of Ohio: +850
In other news
NFL Week 13 Direct Picks: See which way the MMQB staff are leaning for this week’s 15-game slate, which begins Thursday with Bills-Patriots. Only one writer chose New England, a domestic dog.
Dynasty Stock Watch: Get the temperature in the Jets quarterback room and find out what to do with Zach Wilson and Mike White, depending on your team’s short and long-term goals.
The Yankees offered the judge approximately $300 million: New York reportedly offered the All-Star outfielder an eight-year contract worth nearly $300 million, which would earn the judge about $37.5 million a year. Other teams are in the hunt to sign the AL MVP.
Thanks for reading Winners Club! I’ll talk to you again on Sunday morning. Until there.