Bills vs Bengals odds, line, spread: Monday Night Football picks, NFL predictions, best bets by proven model

The bright lights will shine on two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks on Monday Night Football as Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. The Bills (12-3) won the AFC East and they’ve won six in a row, but face a Bengals team that’s won seven in a row. The Bengals (11-4) must finish with two wins and Kansas City lose one to earn the top seed. Both teams picked up wins in Week 16, with the Bills beating Chicago 35-13 and the Bengals winning 22-18 in New England.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. Caesars Sportsbook lists Buffalo as a 1-point favorite in its latest Bills vs. Bengals odds, while the over/under for total runs scored is 49.5. Before you lock in the Bengals picks against the Bills, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting tips from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has grown more than $7,000 for players to $100 on top NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 158-113 run on NFL’s top picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model has ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the last six years on NFL direct picks and has beaten more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that time. Anyone who followed him is upstairs.

Now the model has set his sights on the Bills vs. the Bengals and has just locked in his MNF picks and predictions. You can head over to SportsLine now to see the model choices. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines and trends for the Bengals vs. Bills:

  • Difference Bills vs. Bengals: Buffalo -1
  • Bills vs. Bengals over/under: 49.5 points
  • Bills vs. Bengals money line: Buffalo -115, Cincinnati -105
  • BUF: Bills are 52-42-7 ATS (56%) under coach Sean McDermott (since 2017)
  • CIN: Bengals are 41-25-2 ATS (62%) with Zac Taylor as coach (as of 2019)
  • Bills pick vs. Bengals: See picks on SportsLine

Featured Game | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills

Why bills can cover

Buffalo is 7-7-1 ATS this season, but 6-3-1 ATS in non-division play. Buffalo’s three losses are by four runs or less. Allen leads an offense that is second in total yards (402 per game) and fourth in scoring (28 points per game). The fifth-year quarterback has 4,029 passing yards and 746 rushing yards and has totaled 39 touchdowns. He has a big receiver in Stefon Diggs, who is third in the league with 1,325 yards and 10 touchdowns. Cincinnati’s defense ranks 21st against the pass (226 yards per game) and has the fourth-fewest sacks in the league (26).

Bills should have no problem extending rides. They convert on third down over 50% of the time, the best in the NFL, while Cincinnati allows conversions nearly 40% (19th) of the time. Buffalo has the fourth-best rush defense in the NFL (104 ypg), while the Bengals are 29th in rushing (98 ypg). See which way to fall back here.

Why the Bengals can cover

Cincinnati is the NFL’s best ATS team, going 12-3 ATS this season and 20-3 in its last 23 games. Burrow is second in the NFL in passing yards (4,260) and touchdown passes (34), and the return of Ja’Marr Chase made a big difference. The sophomore widened has 960 yards and eight touchdowns despite missing four games. He has 32 catches for 355 yards in four games since returning. Tee Higgins (1,022 yards) and Tyler Boyd (711) have thrived in Chase’s absence. Running back Joe Mixon has 55 receptions to rank third on the team and has 1,187 yards.

The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, and the Bengals are scoring 26 ppg (sixth in the NFL) and allowing 20 (ninth). The Bengals have a plus-3 turnover margin and are tied for sixth-lowest turnover (17). The Bills are even on the fringes in turnover, but have given it up 24 times, tied for second in the NFL. See which way to fall back here.

How to make choices between Bengals and Bills

SportsLine’s model leans into the total, projecting a combined 50 points. The model also indicates that one side of the gap hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see the model’s MNF picks on SportsLine.

So who wins the Bengals against the Bills? And which side of the gap hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills-Bengals gap you need to jump on Monday, all from the model who crushed his NFL picks, and find out.

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